tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3608739767243883233.post728403882604443045..comments2018-12-13T21:21:49.022-08:00Comments on Proliferation of Niches: Dueling MetaphorsEric Rollinshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10320714702919518976noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3608739767243883233.post-66230773609660221732011-07-31T11:44:13.912-07:002011-07-31T11:44:13.912-07:00Checked just now. Enlightening.
2011 budget shor...Checked just now. Enlightening.<br /><br />2011 budget shortfall is $1.6t on a total budget of $3.8t. So the deficit is 43% of total spending, or 11% of GDP (!!).<br /><br />Education, health, welfare, pensions and interest are 64% of the total budget. Stated another way, more than 100% of tax receipts are consumed by transfer payments codified in law, plus the bureaucracy to deliver those payments.<br /><br />If you shut everything else down -- military, federal courts, all regulatory agencies -- you still come up slightly short. <br /><br />But of course military suppliers have signed contracts with the govt. Judges have lifetime appointments. Lots of explicit and implicit commitments.<br /><br />The above oversimplifies but is still revelatory. Seemingly the debt limit must trigger contractual defaults of one sort or another, unless raised. <br /><br />Unclear how far away the first actual default might be.Gemfinderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16530412594905013281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3608739767243883233.post-19486091852001826212011-07-30T18:48:37.810-07:002011-07-30T18:48:37.810-07:00Two questions:
1) Do federal workers employment c...Two questions:<br /><br />1) Do federal workers employment contracts have severance clauses?<br />2) What percentage of the federal budget is payroll?<br /><br />If 1) is no, and 2) is less than the deficit, then technically they don't have to default on existing contracts (except where they are "contracted" to provide services).<br /><br />Not saying this would be an acceptable way out.Eric Rollinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10320714702919518976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3608739767243883233.post-48605034491259818702011-07-30T18:26:35.120-07:002011-07-30T18:26:35.120-07:00A related role reversal concerns the morality of v...A related role reversal concerns the morality of voluntary default on a financial contract.<br /><br />Conservatives are more likely than liberals to consider strategic default immoral (e.g. choosing to default on a mortgage that one could, in truth, afford to keep paying). <br /><br />Ironically, the strictest fiscal-morality faction of the House of Reps is now blocking exactly the measure that prevents nation-scale voluntary default on pre-existing financial contracts.<br /><br />Seemingly, a policy more consistent with their own moral regime would be to raise the debt limit (keep promises already made) but also refuse to authorize new spending above tax receipts.Gemfinderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16530412594905013281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3608739767243883233.post-20953484758494803272011-07-30T13:15:04.009-07:002011-07-30T13:15:04.009-07:00This was great.This was great.Gemfinderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16530412594905013281noreply@blogger.com